About Scaling Bets
Quantitative predictions for world markets
The Mission
Scaling Bets is a system built to predict the future. Specifically, how major world events will ripple through financial markets. Every day, thousands of things happen that could move prices: policy shifts, earnings surprises, geopolitical tensions, economic data. Most of it is noise. The signal is what matters, and finding it at scale requires a data-driven approach—not gut feelings.
How It Works
The system pulls data from dozens of sources: financial news, prediction markets, real-time stock movements, and more. It combines trading strategies with AI models, feeding them relevant market data and live signals. Context retrieval helps supplement the AI's decision making, giving models the right information at the right time instead of relying only on what they learned during training. This filters out the noise—clickbait, speculation, filler—and surfaces only what matters.
With enough quality data, undervalued assets can be spotted. The system builds forecasts based on patterns, then packages everything into investment briefs. It connects dots between events that seem unrelated and highlights what matters for the next trade.
Returns Are the North Star
The only way to know if the models work is to measure returns. Every prediction gets tested against reality. No hiding behind vague analysis or takes that can't be proven wrong. If the predictions don't make money, the models need to get better. Simple as that.